The season is four games old. In baseball, that's an infancy. Yet, fans in Detroit are ready to blow this roster wide open. Why?
Sure, sports fans tend to overreact. But there's something more with this team. In most seasons, I'd look at the situation objectively. I'd recommend waiting until the team played 30 games before making any prediction. Besides, opening up with two road series was a tall order for a team with a 29-52 road record last year. So why are Tiger fans so confident that this team is going nowhere?
The simple fact is that the 2011 Tigers picked up right where the 2010 left off. And that team wasn't terribly different from the 2009 Tigers. There's not a ton of turnover. Those teams flirted with success only to disappoint in crunch time. The 2009 incarnation took that disappointment to an extreme. Look at the opening day lineups:
2011 2010 2009
Austin Jackson Austin Jackson Curtis Granderson
Will Rhymes Scott Sizemore Placido Polanco
Maggs Maggs Maggs
Cabrera Cabrera Cabrera
V. Martinez Guillen Guillen
Raburn Johnny Damon Josh Anderson
Peralta Adam Everett Adam Everett
Inge=HOF Inge=HOF Inge=HOF
Avila Laird Laird
Pitcher
Verlander Verlander Verlander
This team has some clear troublespots. Their leadoff hitter strikes out way too much. Granderson was 9th in the league in total strikeouts in 2009. Austin Jackson led the league last year, and, sad to say, he's already tops in the league for 2011 with 8.
In that second spot, they've clearly downgraded. Sizemore and Rhymes are a poor substitute for Placido Polanco (who, by the way, hit .298 for the Phillies last year). Why was he not offered a contract?
The 3, 4, 5 spots are solid, if not strong. No complaints there. Victor Martinez, despite a poor start, is still an excellent hitter, and he provides the left-handed bat that's eluded this team for years.
The trouble begins in the 6th spot. In the offseason, I was desperately hoping the Tigers would add a solid bat. They did bring back Maggs, which is nice, but they needed more power. I'm sure he's a nice dude, but Raburn ain't the answer. In left field, they've trotted out Josh Anderson (who?), Damon, and now Raburn. In the 7th spot, Peralta is at least a decent upgrade over Adam Everett. But the jury is out on Peralta's defense. He's already botched a grounder that was graciously not deemed an error by the Yankee scorekeeper. The Yankees went on to score 3 that inning. Inge remains in the 8th spot. Yawn. And of course there's Avila instead of Laird bringing up the rear (literally).
Other than the 3-4-5 spots, this team is pedestrian at the plate. That's especially sad because this team was built for offense, not defense. When the heart of the order goes 1-12 like yesterday, it's no surprise that they manage just 1 run. And this team does not have the pitching to win a 1-0 game. Just ain't gonna happen.
While I've been harping about the offense, I should note that I don't blame them for this year's poor start. They're just the reason for fan frustration. The batters are doing what they always do, which is get a handful of hits but ultimately come up short.
The real culprit for the disappointing start this season is the starting pitching. Verlander leads the starting staff with a 4.50 ERA. Next in line is Porcello, sporting a solid 9.00 ERA. Scherzer's at 10.80. And then we've got Brad Penny at a healthy 16.62. That's ugly, even for this team. The only positive thing about this staff is that Benoit, Schlereth, and Valverde have yet to concede a run. Otherwise, this staff is a disaster. Unless the starters right the ship, this team is headed for last place.
Of course, that's part of the problem. I have no doubt the starters will right the ship to some degree. They'll find a way to eke out a few wins. But best case scenario is that this team finishes somewhere in 3rd or 2nd place in the Central. Not even the greatest optimist could expect anything more. With a pretty dreadful farm system, I suppose I should be pleased the Tigers are competitive. That's a credit to Dombrowski for keeping the team afloat. He's drafted pretty well and made a handful of good trades. Yet, his manager does little to inspire confidence. He's so damn ornery. His act was welcome at first, but it's played out. He turns off the media and now the fans too. The fans want somebody who's going to rally this team. I just can't see Leyland as that guy.
